The tally was taken on 7th July at 19:00 PDT which if I've worked it out right was 18 hours after the maintenance that started the event.
By that point we had...
- 4 Daily Tasks
- 2 Weekly Tasks
- 4 Limited-Time Tasks
...that were tagged as [9th Anniv.], as maintenance ended 4 hours before a changeover of the daily tasks.
That means at most any one person could have contributed 10 points (though not everyone would have; for instance I've still not seen any Ceremo Rappy, and many people couldn't play for the first 4 hours after maintenance ended so they missed out contributing 2 points immediately).
But ignoring lost points and just assuming everyone got all the points they could, that'd still be 129,117 distinct players across both services in that 18-hour window as an absolute minimum. Supposing the average was 7 points per person it'd be ~184,450 distinct players, and if the average was 5 per person it'd be ~258,200 distinct players.
The next tally is in,
Going from 1,291,169 to 1,993,019 is a difference of 701,850 points.
If we assume everyone who did it that day had only 2x 9th anniversary daily tasks, that would put the estimate at 350,925, which is quite an unlikely increase(possible, but unlikely) compared to the first day if I must be honest, so we'll have to assume there were also some who also did some limited-time tasks they never completed on day 1, did extras, and/or multiaccounted more counts of tasks.
Alternatively, we can use the 1,993,019 points and average it out to two days of which by the tally we had:
- 6 Daily 9th Anni. Tasks
- 2 Weekly 9th Anni. Tasks
- 4 Limited-Time 9th Anni. Tasks
So, on the assumption of the maximum 12(10+2) tasks per person done by the second tally, the average would put the number at ~166,085 distinct accounts across two days.
If we assume the average of 9(7+2) tasks per person, that would put it at ~221,447 across two days.
And if we assume the average of 7(5+2) tasks per person, that would put it at ~284,718 across two days.
Please correct me if I'm doing this wrong @Miraglyth , I'd really appreciate your input.
(Also, would it be better to create a new thread for the purpose of these weblink panel estimates?)