RNGesus having an off day?

Didn't mean to make this topic about rappy egg! (Though, if it is: "16 runs at 500% RDR and no drop now.")

Somewhere along the way they decided to make rappy 13* drop only. JP included a couple 10* versions as bonuses for separate purchases in 2016 (an Episode 4 physical edition and volume 6 of the DVD series for the animation), so they probably wanted to keep it rare during Episode 4 so those purchases (particularly the former) were more appealing. We got most of those bonuses mixed into two premium packs but neither kept the egg so we're stuck with rare 13* drops.

JP have since had limited-time quests and even collection folders (including a 14* light element in easter 2020!) so we'll probably get something similar in the medium-term future. It'd just be nice to not have to wait that long, and if Deus Esca departs the schedule in a couple days that'll pretty much ensure that wait.


Edit: I need to follow up something I said a few posts ago:

@Miraglyth said in RNGesus having an off day?:

the last I saw [Rappy Egg from Crimson Fellwyrm] dropped substantially fewer relative to 10* drops than Deus Esca.

I've reviewed in the current window: We've had 321 Rappy Egg and 173,721 of the most common 10* item (Deo Laserswift). That's 541 of the most common 10* per Rappy Egg.

Deus Esca has 155 Rappy Egg and 105,584 of the most common 10* (Deo Adelaide). So that's 681 of the most common 10* per Rappy Egg. The rematch (53 and 32,924 so 621 per) broadly matches an old JP interview saying the Rappy Egg drop rate was the same between the first fight and the rematch.

So on paper Crimson Fellwyrm might be better than Deus Esca. The comparison isn't perfect (among other things, I'm pretty sure Deus Esca drops way more 10* weapons. I often come away with 25-30 cubes from the first part! It also doesn't drop as many 12* and higher items) but at the very least we can see Crimson Fellwyrm isn't suffering for Rappy Egg drops.

Additional, while there are other 13* eggs as I pointed out, Rappy is the most common one (321 Rappy, 152 Melon, 148 Marron, 146 Jinga, 145 Viola, 135 Redran 128 Synchro, 124 Popple and 119 Aero). So while a ? Special Egg only has about a 22.5% chance to be Rappy, the rest seem to be additional rather than interference.

Still, for anyone who can do both runs on Deus Esca and only the first of Crimson Fellwyrm, the former is clearly preferable.

Keep in mind, you can only ever get egg drops if you are playing as summoner. Summoner is the least played class in the game, therefore 13-14* eggs actually drop at a pretty good rate, as I've gotten a 14* egg before 14* were even introduced to the game en masse. @Miraglyth .

If you're ever playing any class that is not summoner then eggs CAN NOT drop for you in any way.

@Kurumi-Tokisaki said in RNGesus having an off day?:

Keep in mind, you can only ever get egg drops if you are playing as summoner.

Something I brought up and already had to remind knowledge of back on the first page, yeah. At that time we also discussed how inexplicable it is for eggs to be subject to this limitation considering their low overall drop quantity. Personally I think Sega overstepped when responding to complaints from non-summoners getting sweet drops.

I've heard complaints from other TEC classes not getting sweets since the candy canes are good for TEC mags.

...welp, the update is here, and the next week has...

  • 31 Trick or Treat!
  • 16 Imposing Iron Assault
  • 14 Crimson Fellwyrm Over the Castle
  • 0 Deus Esca, Maker of New Epochs

I was entirely right to fear this week would bring the ridiculous premature disappearance of Deus Esca. Unless those new collection folders include a rappy egg, they've just cut most summoner players out at the knees.

And Stupid Ironboat is still outnumbering Crimson Fellwyrm for another week. I have no words for how insane this is. Fortunately it's finally leaving after one more week, but even then Crimson Fellwyrm will never get prime position as a UQ beause Castrum Demonica: Hostility takes over after that.

I'm looking for a silver lining here, but I just don't think there is one. Going by swiki, Enchanted Woods doesn't have any special egg drops so the next UQ with it is another MPA/rematch format like Deus Esca and Crimson Fellwyrm that is not arriving for at least two weeks and will likely also be impossible for mid-level summoners to contribute in so it's still worse than Deus Esca unless the drop rate is more than doubled.

Oh well.


Except wait!

There was one more run! When the schedule was first published I'm sure this one wasn't even on it, but just before logging off it was announced in-game and it's on the schedule now, making it the last scheduled Deus Esca window and with it perhaps the last realistic chance at a Rappy Egg for some time.

And would you believe it. Would you freaking believe it. RNGesus is the centre of attention once again.

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I still don't like the prospect of summoners getting messed around with by the reduced chance for a while, but at least if that happens it's a bullet I've managed to dodge with the last possible chance.

ridiculous? that's the yamato v2, deus never got updated therefore it's time for it to disappear. it is sad we don't get more profound darkness with that 15 *drop tho (tons of 9x triggers still being sold tho!)

@Kurumi-Tokisaki said in RNGesus having an off day?:

ridiculous? that's the yamato v2, deus never got updated therefore it's time for it to disappear.

Deus Esca never needed an update. It's more rewarding and more fun than Imposing Iron Assault even after its upgrade.

Between Iron Assault's arrival and Deus Esca's departure, the two have run concurrently. If the two were treated equally, they would have got equal coverage. However in that span of time we saw 40 Deus Esca schedulings and 61 Imposing Iron Assaults. 52.5% more. The imbalance has been ridiculous.

Now yes, you could argue that period of time includes the debut period of Imposing Iron Assault which traditionally sees it appear more. But there are two obvious counterpoints to this:

  • Even if you take away the first 72 hours after IIA's first appearance, it's still 36 vs 53 which is a comparable difference.
  • As I mentioned earlier, the most-scheduled UQ during the debut of Crimson Fellwyrm was still Iron Assault by some margin, meaning Crimson Fellwyrm is probably the first UQ since PC release and probably ever to not be the most-featured UQ during its debut. Thanks boat.

Basically it's been like Imposing Iron Assault has had the boosted frequency of a new UQ debut, only for its entire duration. And it wasn't even a new UQ to begin with since it was just an upgrade to Dignity of Steel. And none of the numbers above include the few dozen Dignity of Steel schedulings prior to the upgrade.

The good news is Deus Esca has a sidegrade we might get in the distant future, combining the last part of the Mother fight with the last half of the Deus Esca fight. It seems like the drops from both are present (although like the SG scratch that might half the overall rate of individual items like, meaning base Deus Esca would still have been better). But sadly that's a future arrival at least 2 weeks away. Between then and now the farming options for a couple core drops most notably Rappy Egg have been substantially reduced which kind of sucks.

We need more boat because nobody got his 14* drops yet, lol.

That's a drop rate issue, and all more boat would do is see the % completion fall below 40% after 30 minutes instead of the under 60% I hear it often has lately.

RNJesus has given me about 8 val Weize all while farming the val sword and buster set on the hardest setting. Once I got my sword, it is now part of the collection folder.