Activity - Make your educated guess!

@Ragnawind said in Activity - Make your educated guess!:

Just a reminder for people, don't expect any news on a Saturday or Sunday until after the game launches or starts a Beta. I noticed that they rarely ever, if ever, post on the weekends after their CBT ended, even in response to others asking questions on Twitter.

Personally, the earliest I expect any info will be Monday March 2, since that gives them enough time to get information together on what their plans are and it be just before the start of Spring. OBT will likely be that weekend on March 6 or the following week on Monday March 9. OBT will likely last anywhere between 1 and 3 weeks with Launch either being immediately after or within 4 weeks.

Agreed. I don't think we'll get any news until March, though I'm a tad more pessimistic so I doubt early March will give us any relief. It'll more likely be mid to end of March before we get any information about when the Open Betas will start. As Q2 (financial spring) doesn't begin until April 1st, I'm gonna say we'll get the Open Betas for Xbox and PC around then, possibly even at the same time to test crossplay compatibility and server stability all at once, but that might end up being two tests (which I'd be perfectly fine with, absence makes the heart grow fonder, and boooy am I fond at this point). From there, it just depends what games come out between end of April to end of June. I looked it up, and while there are some big games coming out for PS4 in this time (Last of us 2) the only thing that they'd really need to avoid for Xbox and PC is coming out too close to Elden Ring in June (look it up if you don't know what it is). So I'm thinking the game will come out in May, around the 15th or so.

---TLDR:

March 17th, new info

Weekends of April 11th & 18th, Open Betas

Game Launch, May 15th

https://www.instagram.com/play_pso2/ (reply on latest post/casino one) alt text

Guess my "guess" going off that "very soon", would be early/mid next month could at least be OBT. If they aren't toying with us, or being overly enthusiastic with their words. ლ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°ლ) (unforeseen issues etc being another thing)

  • OBT start: 13th March
  • OBT end: 20th March
  • Official release: 23rd March shrugs
  • Info released: 2nd March

That's trying to be reasonable, more optimistically I'd cut/add a week in places(OBT start/info(?) for the "cut"), though other than OBT maybe already being optimistic. Though only went with those exact dates cause CBT started on a Saturday*(shrugs), if were to cheat I'd say around those weeks. >.>

*Well guess Friday depending on timezone look at, but basically weekend...

Imo, the strangest part of these guesses, is only 1 week of open beta.

Hm, at least personally don't have any solid reason for guessing a single week of OBT. More of just said with the thought PSO2 team could be aiming for right near start of Spring for the release(optimism). shrugs

From my experiences, obt tends to be a good month or so. Though with f2p, it can run much longer. Given that June 20th tends to be the end of Calender spring, I'm guessing launch will be just before public schools let out for summer. With beta starting sometime around mid march/April (depending on how much actually needs to be tested.

If I may provide some guess/theory on how these sort of things usually work allow me to explain.

Microsoft is not involved in the NA version's development or its management.

Unlike PSU or PSOBB, PSO2 NA is being managed by SEGA of Japan in the sense of:

  • They are the ones who develop the Xbox One port.
  • They are the ones using the MS Azure Dashboard to run, modify, etc server parameters and maintain it.
  • They are the ones who maintain the version, develop content for it and apply patch updates. (this idea that the publisher gets the game's entire source code and are free to do what they want with it is very old and won't work for a game like PSO2)

The game's Community (GMs, Forums, Customer Support, etc) has been outsourced to ESTsoft. They can and will only talk about things that SEGA of Japan allows them to. They know we really want that release date... but they either don't know it yet (SOJ won't tell em until they are done developing it) or they do but aren't allowed to say it by SOJ.

Now this begs the question... why wouldn't this information be allowed to be released and whats taking SOJ so long hmm? Well for that you'll have to understand the second question...

Yes its an eight-year-old game, but it is running on new server infrastructure (MS Azure), requires porting to a new platform entirely (Xbox One, the Closed Beta in theory could have been testing the quality of the port hence the exclusivity) and also needs to be localized.

For Localization, SOJ would probably be working closely with and maintaining contact with the Localization team as while the Localization team are the ones who create the English text its up to SOJ to actually implement the text, format it properly (which wasn't done entirely for the Closed Beta e.g "16Meseta" instead of "16 Meseta" since Japanese doesn't have the spacing between the number and the word "Meseta"). All this is done while also managing the Japanese version and developing updates for it.

We must also account for the fact that the Player Survey only ended like a week and a half ago as of the posting of this message. If at all, there's any reasonable requests made that SOJ feels like listening to those add to the workload of things that need to be developed for the NA version.

So now the Community Team.... with all this in mind SOJ may be working towards a particular date in mind but don't have a guarantee that things would be ready by then. Its probably for this reason that the release date is still just "Spring" since if things go south... they do still have many months in Spring to get things fixed. As such, SOJ may not have told the Community Team OR they did but told them not to make any announcement until it is confirmed that the dates will be met. So they are in a rock and a hard place... they can stay silent and the Community will go nuts with lack of updates (remember what happened when SEGA went silent on PSO2 in 2012...?), or they can stall and at least show there's some activity going on... but still annoy those who just want a release date which won't come until SEGA of Japan says so.

Hopefully, this clears some things up and gives facts to account for when guessing dates or makes some of us reconsider making any decision over how the Community Team's handling things right now.

@Leonkh99 said in Activity - Make your educated guess!:

If I may provide some guess/theory on how these sort of things usually work allow me to explain.

Microsoft is not involved in the NA version's development or its management.

Unlike PSU or PSOBB, PSO2 NA is being managed by SEGA of Japan in the sense of:

  • They are the ones who develop the Xbox One port.
  • They are the ones using the MS Azure Dashboard to run, modify, etc server parameters and maintain it.
  • They are the ones who maintain the version, develop content for it and apply patch updates. (this idea that the publisher gets the game's entire source code and are free to do what they want with it is very old and won't work for a game like PSO2)

The game's Community (GMs, Forums, Customer Support, etc) has been outsourced to ESTsoft. They can and will only talk about things that SEGA of Japan allows them to. They know we really want that release date... but they either don't know it yet (SOJ won't tell em until they are done developing it) or they do but aren't allowed to say it by SOJ.

Now this begs the question... why wouldn't this information be allowed to be released and whats taking SOJ so long hmm? Well for that you'll have to understand the second question...

Yes its an eight-year-old game, but it is running on new server infrastructure (MS Azure), requires porting to a new platform entirely (Xbox One, the Closed Beta in theory could have been testing the quality of the port hence the exclusivity) and also needs to be localized.

For Localization, SOJ would probably be working closely with and maintaining contact with the Localization team as while the Localization team are the ones who create the English text its up to SOJ to actually implement the text, format it properly (which wasn't done entirely for the Closed Beta e.g "16Meseta" instead of "16 Meseta" since Japanese doesn't have the spacing between the number and the word "Meseta"). All this is done while also managing the Japanese version and developing updates for it.

We must also account for the fact that the Player Survey only ended like a week and a half ago as of the posting of this message. If at all, there's any reasonable requests made that SOJ feels like listening to those add to the workload of things that need to be developed for the NA version.

So now the Community Team.... with all this in mind SOJ may be working towards a particular date in mind but don't have a guarantee that things would be ready by then. Its probably for this reason that the release date is still just "Spring" since if things go south... they do still have many months in Spring to get things fixed. As such, SOJ may not have told the Community Team OR they did but told them not to make any announcement until it is confirmed that the dates will be met. So they are in a rock and a hard place... they can stay silent and the Community will go nuts with lack of updates (remember what happened when SEGA went silent on PSO2 in 2012...?), or they can stall and at least show there's some activity going on... but still annoy those who just want a release date which won't come until SEGA of Japan says so.

Hopefully, this clears some things up and gives facts to account for when guessing dates or makes some of us reconsider making any decision over how the Community Team's handling things right now.

no.

without MS we would be waiting another 20 years for the NA version. they are the ONLY reason we are getting it at all. as such they definitely are involved.

@MEGAF1UX , but tthey are not working on the game's code, nor localizing nor marketing. They are basically there to finance the release and act as a consultant on Online games in the West. Given the kind of involvement that I was referring to and the fact that my message was long as it was, I found this irrelevant to bring up.

Open Beta start date: June something

Open Beta end date: never

Official release date: never

Bonus question: May

@Leonkh99 said in Activity - Make your educated guess!:

@MEGAF1UX , but tthey are not working on the game's code, nor localizing nor marketing. They are basically there to finance the release and act as a consultant on Online games in the West. Given the kind of involvement that I was referring to and the fact that my message was long as it was, I found this irrelevant to bring up.

I found your reasoning from your previous post enlightening and we'll thought out. Kudos.

inititally, i thought it'd be sooner than expected. A lot of games don't let you carry over your progress in cbt to open beta unless it's coming real quick. So, i can only assume there is something holding it up.

Each day, that goes by pushed any open beta testing back 7-14 days from announcement to play at minimum. With spring not starting for a little bit , i am going to go with a :

April 7 obt and that'll be the game with maybe a maintenance from obt to release.

@Leonkh99 said in Activity - Make your educated guess!:

Microsoft is not involved in the NA version's development or its management.

Depending on how localizing works, companies like SEGA/aka SOJ would require a lot of money to spend on to bring dubs and licensing some parts to get this game rolling in NA. I really doubt that Microsoft did not touch this game at all in one bit when it is them that allowed SEGA to open their gates to bring it considering how SEGA/SOA and SOJ shut down the idea of PSO2 NA being real deal since 2012.

So I believe that when it comes down to financial fund wise, Microsoft did come into an agreement with SOJ to keep it exclusive to Microsoft's XBOX and PC only while earning some benefits of microtransactions that players pay for.

With tldr, I understand and sure there are some statement that makes sense from what you said, but it's also Microsoft's call to say what should be allowed and what shouldn't be allowed since it is their Azure Dashboard and they are the ones who localized it.

And no, MS are not ones to develop it. But they have the right to supervise and manage it at their disposal should SOJ requires funds or extra power to make the game happen.

They are also Marketing as Phil Spencer and Microsoft XBOX have been doing so with closed beta test.

-- With that said,

I'd say OBT is mid to end of March Release is April. I'd not bet on being delayed to June considering there are those who might play other AAA games that come out between April to June this year.

@Rantious is axed. I have a feeling @Taimara-Syn's guess for the news could be on the money! Race is heatin' up!

@LapisWave said in Activity - Make your educated guess!:

@Leonkh99 said in Activity - Make your educated guess!:

Microsoft is not involved in the NA version's development or its management.

Depending on how localizing works, companies like SEGA/aka SOJ would require a lot of money to spend on to bring dubs and licensing some parts to get this game rolling in NA. I really doubt that Microsoft did not touch this game at all in one bit when it is them that allowed SEGA to open their gates to bring it considering how SEGA/SOA and SOJ shut down the idea of PSO2 NA being real deal since 2012.

So I believe that when it comes down to financial fund wise, Microsoft did come into an agreement with SOJ to keep it exclusive to Microsoft's XBOX and PC only while earning some benefits of microtransactions that players pay for.

With tldr, I understand and sure there are some statement that makes sense from what you said, but it's also Microsoft's call to say what should be allowed and what shouldn't be allowed since it is their Azure Dashboard and they are the ones who localized it.

And no, MS are not ones to develop it. But they have the right to supervise and manage it at their disposal should SOJ requires funds or extra power to make the game happen.

They are also Marketing as Phil Spencer and Microsoft XBOX have been doing so with closed beta test.

-- With that said,

I'd say OBT is mid to end of March Release is April. I'd not bet on being delayed to June considering there are those who might play other AAA games that come out between April to June this year.

IF they can release mid april (lets call it "on schedule") they would be taking advantage of the massive advantage they have from cyberpunk being pushed back.

@LapisWave for sure I do understand what you meant, as I said my post was a wall of text as it was and in terms of the kind of involvement I was referring to it didn't feel necessary to bring Microsoft up.

Yes, Microsoft is most likely in a funding and advisory role as well as having their own Requirements for how the game should be on their platform (e.g how Xbox Live implementation can go, what content can be allowed, etc). That said, Microsoft is not involved in the Localization process (Localization had been outsourced to freelancers and Lionbridge Technologies) and the main Community credits do go to ESTsoft (Social Media, GMs, Customer Support).

Microsoft:

  • Is not involved in the Localization Process.

  • Does have a say on what is done with the Azure Dashboard but these requirements are not impactful or even visible to us as players (don't mix up Xbox Live's servers with MS Azure, MS Azure at the end of the day is a server platform kinda like a Website host provider... so long as you meet a few requirements and operate within the terms of service... HOW you use it doesn't really matter)

  • May have given SEGA a discount on Azure or even let them use it free and are indeed the host of MS Azure.... but at the end of the day its SEGA who has access to the dashboard hosting their own self-made server software. If I made a game and decided to host my servers on MS Azure this doesn't mean that Microsoft is not suddenly running the game, it's still my responsibility to use the server software to roll out content and updates, fix and maintain issues with the server software including crashes and so on, etc).

  • Is marketing yes... since they did finance the release as we agreed on. However, they are not the main marketing team as in the ones who decide how say... an event is marketed or something like that. At best, its just hype push and getting the word out.

I hope this clears some things that may have been misunderstood on my end...