Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02

@coldreactive said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

@Ezodagrom said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

@IzzyData said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

I get the feeling it will be possible to copy / paste the installation files from a Win10 PC to a Win7 or 8 PC without any problems. The only thing you need Win10 for is the store front.

Games files obtained from the MS store are encrypted and locked in an usually inaccessible folder.

Apps are in a Windows Apps hidden folder. Even with Admin privileges, the folder cannot be opened:

alt text

This is the CrunchyRoll app as an example. In order to open the folder, you would need a non-windows OS, like Linux. Taking ownership of it still doesn't let you in the folder. The image above is an image of Microsoft's own Process Viewer application.

If it is that C:/Program Files/WindowsApps folder you are saying is inaccessible, that is false. I have access to it just fine directly in Windows 10. All I did was go to its folder properties and security tab. Go to the advanced settings and changed the owner to Administartors. Then I applied it to that folder and all child directories and can access it just fine..

@Miraglyth I hope that is the case and the game has to open all ships, but I don't think it will happen with it being so early in the morning.

I think it will be a constant flow of people coming in throughout the week and they will start making more ships available as needed.

It will be awesome if the demand is so crazy that they need to open them all, though. That is a good thing to have to fix, imo.

@Ragnawind for mine I had to change it to the MS account I log into my local accounts with. It didn't work until I applied it to the WindowsApp and then clicked to apply it to all inheritance files and it worked finally.

I think there was also a corrupted permission I had to remove as well.

After doing that you can link it to your steam library, but it still requires MS Store to validate your MS account for the authentication service, so it won't work without MS store for windows 10.

@John-Paul-RAGE said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

I think it will be a constant flow of people coming in throughout the week and they will start making more ships available as needed.

I hope not... that would mean many of us are forced to start on a very un-fresh ship, play like crazy during the days off we've booked specifically to play, and then see a new ship with the fresh start we always wanted opened up. We'd be forced to throw away our days off, our early time spend and potentially some started bonuses accounts only get once to get a fresh start, which would really quite suck.

Still better than never getting Ship 4 opened, sure, and I'd push my group to start over, but I honestly don't know if that push would bring them all. And I don't want to split people up. This is kind of a horror scenario to be honest, and one that is really preventable.

@John-Paul-RAGE said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

@Miraglyth I hope that is the case and the game has to open all ships, but I don't think it will happen with it being so early in the morning.

I think it will be a constant flow of people coming in throughout the week and they will start making more ships available as needed.

It will be awesome if the demand is so crazy that they need to open them all, though. That is a good thing to have to fix, imo.

That could backfire on them though if that’s their plan unless 1 new ship opens to begin with . Some players have said they would like a new ship due to wanting a fresh start ext. if they were to have the 3 ships open at first then start opening more later it could cause the backlash of the players not being able to choose thar option to begin with unless offering free transfers or something

@RagnarokSlayer said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

That could backfire on them though if that’s their plan unless 1 new ship opens to begin with . Some players have said they would like a new ship due to wanting a fresh start ext. if they were to have the 3 ships open at first then start opening more later it could cause the backlash of the players not being able to choose thar option to begin with unless offering free transfers or something

And even that would backfire because Xbox One players would get those free transfers and that would immediately stop the new ships being fresh anyway.

But yes, you're right. If they cared about the sizeable number of new players who want to be in a new ship, they'd open up Ship 4 as a bare minimum in this upcoming maintenance. But without sounding too cynical I think that's a pretty big if.

@IfrianMMO said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

I would suggest to people to temper their expectations over the size of the PC playerbase.

You guys are talking like we are going FFXIV/WOW tier starting tomorrow just because the game is being released on PC like there´s millions of players just excitedly refreshing the Windows/Xbox store just waiting for the PC client to appear.

  1. The game is only playable on Windows 10 , which alienates many Free2Play MMO players with less powerful systems.

  2. It requires you to go thru more hops than the JP version if you are European and even more so to make any purchase.

  3. There has been barely any hype or advertisement for the PC version & most EU sites are not even reporting it due to 2)

  4. The horrible and over-greedy monetization is well known at this point even outside this forum.

  5. A sizeable amount of PC players are already invested in and spent a lot of $ in PSO2JP

  6. Phantasy Star never had a big PC playerbase as the numbers of PSOBB and PSU clearly show.

  7. PSO2 is not even making it to TOP 10 in hyped/researched on most MMORPG websites like MMORPG.com which by the way is something i have never seen happen in the past, a day before a new MMORPG´s release.

I am not saying that there is absolutely no chance for PSO2 to become a hit, and as you can imagine, being a long time fan of the series there is nothing that would make me happier than to be wrong in every single aspect.

But the truth is, things are not looking all that stellar compared to even the releases of cheap stolen asset korean MMOS lol.

Let us hope for the best but perhaps put the champagne bottles down until a week from tomorrow, and hey, if i happen to be wrong, i will open one of my grand reserve Rioja wine bottles to celebrate, so let´s hope i am, both because i want PSO2 to succeed and because i sure could go for a cup of Gran Reserva.

But let us be realistic as well.

❤ a good Rioja. I commend your taste in wine, sir.

@GM-Deynger said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

@IfrianMMO said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

I would suggest to people to temper their expectations over the size of the PC playerbase.

You guys are talking like we are going FFXIV/WOW tier starting tomorrow just because the game is being released on PC like there´s millions of players just excitedly refreshing the Windows/Xbox store just waiting for the PC client to appear.

  1. The game is only playable on Windows 10 , which alienates many Free2Play MMO players with less powerful systems.

  2. It requires you to go thru more hops than the JP version if you are European and even more so to make any purchase.

  3. There has been barely any hype or advertisement for the PC version & most EU sites are not even reporting it due to 2)

  4. The horrible and over-greedy monetization is well known at this point even outside this forum.

  5. A sizeable amount of PC players are already invested in and spent a lot of $ in PSO2JP

  6. Phantasy Star never had a big PC playerbase as the numbers of PSOBB and PSU clearly show.

  7. PSO2 is not even making it to TOP 10 in hyped/researched on most MMORPG websites like MMORPG.com which by the way is something i have never seen happen in the past, a day before a new MMORPG´s release.

I am not saying that there is absolutely no chance for PSO2 to become a hit, and as you can imagine, being a long time fan of the series there is nothing that would make me happier than to be wrong in every single aspect.

But the truth is, things are not looking all that stellar compared to even the releases of cheap stolen asset korean MMOS lol.

Let us hope for the best but perhaps put the champagne bottles down until a week from tomorrow, and hey, if i happen to be wrong, i will open one of my grand reserve Rioja wine bottles to celebrate, so let´s hope i am, both because i want PSO2 to succeed and because i sure could go for a cup of Gran Reserva.

But let us be realistic as well.

❤ a good Rioja. I commend your taste in wine, sir.

If you enjoy Rioja and do not want to spend too much, i recommend trying VIÑA REAL GRAN RESERVA, to be more specific the harvest from 2012, which is affordable (around $35 per bottle) and it is delicious, competing with some $80 bottles.

Intense yet sweet tannic structure with hints of vanilla, caramel, oak bark and red berries.

It has a very long after-taste as well and it becomes better with every extra year of aging.

Every time i open one of my bottles i am both happy because i get to enjoy it and sad because i could not age it even further, but such is the curse of the Rioja aficionado, i guess.

One of my favorites is a good Marqués de Murrieta Castillo Ygay Gran Reserva Especial of 2009 but that has become kind of too expensive in the last few years.

@IfrianMMO said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

I would suggest to people to temper their expectations over the size of the PC playerbase.

You guys are talking like we are going FFXIV/WOW tier starting tomorrow just because the game is being released on PC like there´s millions of players just excitedly refreshing the Windows/Xbox store just waiting for the PC client to appear.

  1. The game is only playable on Windows 10 , which alienates many Free2Play MMO players with less powerful systems.

  2. It requires you to go thru more hops than the JP version if you are European and even more so to make any purchase.

  3. There has been barely any hype or advertisement for the PC version & most EU sites are not even reporting it due to 2)

  4. The horrible and over-greedy monetization is well known at this point even outside this forum.

  5. A sizeable amount of PC players are already invested in and spent a lot of $ in PSO2JP

  6. Phantasy Star never had a big PC playerbase as the numbers of PSOBB and PSU clearly show.

  7. PSO2 is not even making it to TOP 10 in hyped/researched on most MMORPG websites like MMORPG.com which by the way is something i have never seen happen in the past, a day before a new MMORPG´s release.

I am not saying that there is absolutely no chance for PSO2 to become a hit, and as you can imagine, being a long time fan of the series there is nothing that would make me happier than to be wrong in every single aspect.

But the truth is, things are not looking all that stellar compared to even the releases of cheap stolen asset korean MMOS lol.

Let us hope for the best but perhaps put the champagne bottles down until a week from tomorrow, and hey, if i happen to be wrong, i will open one of my grand reserve Rioja wine bottles to celebrate, so let´s hope i am, both because i want PSO2 to succeed and because i sure could go for a cup of Gran Reserva.

But let us be realistic as well.

I appreciate your realistic disposition, but I think you're drastically underestimating the potential here by quite a bit. I'm with you, this isn't going to light the world on fire, that is certain, but I have a few counter-arguments to your list.

  1. Windows 10 is literally the most popular operating system used across all devices, even if you count Android and IOS devices. It currently owns around ~40% of the market share, with other operating systems like IOS/Android/Linux and whatever else you can think of splitting the rest. Additionally, Windows 10 is a performance upgrade from the last several versions of Windows, even on "under-performing" systems. To boot, PSO2 is actually welcoming to modern day underperforming systems due to it's age. The ability to download and acceptably play the game will be quite vast in it's reach.

  2. It 100% does not, chiefly because there is no language barrier which is absolutely a massive component of what makes signing up for the JP one difficult for a vast majority of players, and in addition, difficult for people to play it period. I'm aware of the patch, but people simply don't want to go out of their way to finangle with that, or perhaps have no inclination to support it's use given certain historical facts about the people who run it.

  3. It really doesn't get any more "public" than IGN literally doing a review on it and rating it pretty well. Google trends also shows a marked uptick when searching PSO2 or Phantasy Star Online since the beginning of March, with a massive peak around when the release date was announced for PC. Forbes, PCgamer, GameSpot, all have an article on this release. I mean I don't think I have to go on, do I? This point of yours doesn't really stick.

  4. I can't really argue in proponent of the monetization options, but I think the general sentiment amongst most players is "You don't have to pay" which is exactly where you want your community in a F2P game with monetization. That's purely anecdotal though, I don't have science on this.

  5. Sunk cost fallacy. I'm sure some will stay, yeah, but I've seen this argument pitched a lot when other games make it west a lot later than their foreign counter part and it rarely holds true (usually in part due to lack of player-base, not in part to that player-base remaining on the foreign version). I'm less worried about this, I think it will be a slow burn, people's friends will slowly migrate simply due to the benefits of playing without a 3rd party patch, English customer support, etc. Their friends who were once staunchly pro-stay-JP will soon follow and crack...I have an entire alliance that was pro-stay-JP that converted to going to US version for similar reasons.

  6. Eh, PSOBB and PSU are not really comparable. This would be a different debate but to keep it simple,those games were primarily rooted from what most considered to be "console" games. PSU came out on both PS2 and PC at the same time, but it had a much large player base on PS2. PC version was practically dead compared. You know which version had the absolute most massive community though? Xbox 360. That version was pretty bustling all the way until the end. PSOBB suffered from really only offering EP4 content on top of content that people had already and still were already playing on GC/XBOX for some odd years, and EP4 content wasn't really that extensive beyond the new boss and a handful of new items worth getting. So it was attempting to be unnecessarily cannibalistic at the time it released, with their move to supporting PC-only.

  7. This is not really fair to mention, because PSO2 did reach high levels on that website around the time of it's Japanese release, as do most other foreign MMOs that aren't yet confirmed to be coming West. Take, for example, Lost Ark, which has seen huge surges in popularity in the past on that site despite no mention of a western release yet...given, it causes the western release to be a bit more muted, especially when that western release comes 8 years later, but that's just how internet trends work. PSO2 was already hyped over way back in the day.

All being said, I'm again not saying that this is going to be the conduit towards a massive Phantasy Star Online boom, but there's really no sense in so severely downplaying the potential here.

@Zipzo said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

Windows 10 is literally the most popular operating system used across all devices

For sources:

W3Schools access logs: https://www.w3schools.com/Browsers/browsers_os.asp

And Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems#Market_share_by_category (Windows is all Windows versions.)

https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share (Windows is all Windows versions.)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/218089/global-market-share-of-windows-7/ (Windows is all Windows version.)

Google trends also shows a marked uptick when searching PSO2 or Phantasy Star Online

For Sources: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&q=Phantasy Star Online 2,PSO2,Phantasy Star Online

@Zipzo said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

It really doesn't get any more "public" than IGN literally doing a review on it and rating it pretty well.

I mean, have you really never heard of RAID Shadow Legends or Ark Knight? Or more recently Runeterra or the solar power bank that Lit Mobile sent a few fake YouTubers?

Public exposure demands raising awareness on platforms with people, which is best done either by using a games launcher/storefront ecosystem that gamers actually use or by showing ads on social media platforms like YouTube. I don't believe Phantasy Star Online 2 has done either so it feels pretty silly to read they couldn't have been more public.

@Zipzo said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

Eh, PSOBB and PSU are not really comparable.

As someone who played both, and Online prior to that, and II prior to that, there are absolutely parallels between BB/Universe and Online 2 both with respect to player counts and the handling of those counts. Obviously both Universe and Online 2 use the model of having development in Japan and community management in America.

One thing I deeply remember is that Universe was going to "do it right this time" and catch up with the JP server so they wouldn't fall behind like Blue Burst did. Of course, Universe never caught up. It didn't get enough interest early on (an early warning sign was when someone noticed after a week the newest player ID was still around 30,000 - and that was with a subscription model) and so the JP development team deprioritised it until it died.

14 years on we're being told that Online 2 will "do it right this time" and catch up with JP within a year. It seems they're more serious this time - for now - so if they still keep to that intention and do catch up we may not have to worry. I personally think they'll give it a much more committed effort than Universe got. But if things go south and we never catch up, that'll be quite an enormous parallel, don't you think?

@coldreactive said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

@Zipzo said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

Windows 10 is literally the most popular operating system used across all devices

For sources:

W3Schools access logs: https://www.w3schools.com/Browsers/browsers_os.asp

And Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems#Market_share_by_category (Windows is all Windows versions.)

https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share (Windows is all Windows versions.)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/218089/global-market-share-of-windows-7/ (Windows is all Windows version.)

Google trends also shows a marked uptick when searching PSO2 or Phantasy Star Online

For Sources: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&q=Phantasy Star Online 2,PSO2,Phantasy Star Online

Also depending on the resource used, you'll get varying data. This is the excerpt from Wikipedia on usage share which makes the scenario look vastly more in my favor, especially since PSO2 is not playable on IOS or natively to Android devices.

In the area of desktop and laptop computers, Microsoft Windows is generally above 70% in most markets and at 77% to 87.8% globally, Apple's macOS is at around 9.6% to 13%, Google's Chrome OS is up to 6% (in the US) and other Linux distributions are at around 2%. All these figures vary somewhat in different markets, and depending on how they are gathered.

@Miraglyth said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

@Zipzo said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

It really doesn't get any more "public" than IGN literally doing a review on it and rating it pretty well.

I mean, have you really never heard of RAID Shadow Legends or Ark Knight? Or more recently Runeterra or the solar power bank that Lit Mobile sent a few fake YouTubers?

Public exposure demands raising awareness on platforms with people, which is best done either by using a games launcher/storefront ecosystem that gamers actually use or by showing ads on social media platforms like YouTube. I don't believe Phantasy Star Online 2 has done either so it feels pretty silly to read they couldn't have been more public.

@Zipzo said in Severe underestimation of the immense amount of players joining Ship 02:

Eh, PSOBB and PSU are not really comparable.

As someone who played both, and Online prior to that, and II prior to that, there are absolutely parallels between BB/Universe and Online 2 both with respect to player counts and the handling of those counts. Obviously both Universe and Online 2 use the model of having development in Japan and community management in America.

One thing I deeply remember is that Universe was going to "do it right this time" and catch up with the JP server so they wouldn't fall behind like Blue Burst did. Of course, Universe never caught up. It didn't get enough interest early on (an early warning sign was when someone noticed after a week the newest player ID was still around 30,000 - and that was with a subscription model) and so the JP development team deprioritised it until it died.

14 years on we're being told that Online 2 will "do it right this time" and catch up with JP within a year. It seems they're more serious this time - for now - so if they still keep to that intention and do catch up we may not have to worry. I personally think they'll give it a much more committed effort than Universe got. But if things go south and we never catch up, that'll be quite an enormous parallel, don't you think?

Don't misconstrue my post as some kind of white knighting for sega's handling of the franchise. I've been around since the beginning as well for every version, so I totally understand the grief with the past.

I'm just saying things aren't as dire as Ifrian made it seem, or rather, I thought his argument points were flawed.

I do believe it has very high potential, I just don't think it will require all 6 ships at 5 AM due to a massive boom.

I am not sure about their specific environment in Azure, but the monitoring tools for Azure in general are very nice and can alert you when a specific threshold is reached. I just wonder if that threshold has any automation involved for opening the next ship, or if that will be manual intervention.

Either way, I am confident in the game's growth over time and the server's capabilities.

Well, on the good side, we do not have to wait all that much to be called to knowledge.

Only a handful of hours to release, and the shape of the community within a month should give us a solid hint of what is to come.

Of course, the real test will be from then to Christmas, and i feel it depends heavily on whether or not the devs care to listen to the feedback that we have provided and the Western staff has been providing them with , or not.