New SG scratch rates.

Did some quick mafs and calculated the new rates.

1.163% = 39% over 42 draws.

1.034% = 35% over 42 draws.

0.904% = 32% over 42 draws.

0.323% = 13% over 42 draws.

0.258% = 10% over 42 draws.

0.129% = 5% over 42 draws.

Note;

Rates are in relation to specific items, not groups.

Rates are rounded.

Rates are estimated with the assumption that we will get a new SG scratch the very first possible October maintenance.

Sega didn't post an ending date for the scratch (or I'm blind and didn't see it) so the info is subject to change.

@Flowen231 said in New SG scratch rates.:

Rates are rounded.

Yeah the game only shows 4 decimal places (and it floors rather than rounds the last of those) but you can work out the literal rates from that (shown below). That precision doesn't change any of your nearest-unit rounding for the chances over 42 draws.

We might also consider 49 draws as Passionate Spirit lasted 7 weeks rather than 6, and this would take us into October 12th which is both a more middle-ground estimate for the Bouncer update in October and a possibly more likely date for new content as October 5th is on or shortly after the next ARKS Headline.

Rate shown Precise rate 1+ in 49 pulls
0.1292% 2/1547 6.14%
0.2585% 4/1547 11.91%
0.3232% 5/1547 14.67%
0.9049% 14/1547 35.95%
1.0342% 16/1547 39.92%
1.1635% 18/1547 43.64%

In other news, 52 of 118 items in this set (~44.07%) are new, making them a minority compared to the 66 (~55.93%) repeats.

But the newer items have a higher overall probability; every pull you have an 890 in 1547 (57.53%) chance of getting something new to ARKS Conductor.

Moreover, no item from a previous set has a better rate than any item from ARKS Conductor; all items new to ARKS Conductor are at least 16/1547, which is great news for Manon cosplayers in particular.

Aren't Sega swore along with appologising that SG gonna contain current + last previous one only? Did they lied AGAIN?

No, they apologized for not announcing that SG contents from the Passionate Spirit SG scratch was going to be in Astute Braver. They'll announce if they'll remove anything from the current SG scratch selection on their site.

https://ngs.pso2.com/news/announcements/announcement65287

In my opinion, I wish they did that pattern so I have a higher chance at the new ones...

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@FollowTheFaceless no, they just said they will be more transparent. This time before the scratch ended they announced the next one will contain everything from the Astute Braver scratch and they will notify in the future if items are being removed from the SG scratch

Yeah the inference of it being like FUN with the new set and items new to the previous set only was something some of us - including myself, I fully acknowledge - had expected. I don't believe they ever said it wouldn't cover more sets.

By the way it kind of bugs me that the URL, banner and name for this uses "Arks", not fully capitalised. ARKS is still an acronym as of NGS.

They said SOME OF. In their understanding SOME OF means ALL I assume.

@Miraglyth localizing issues, it's in all caps or in katakana for JP

@Miraglyth Good stuff! Also possible that it could be a whole new organization at this point, like the ARKZ from PSO1 episode 3.

@Flowen231 said in New SG scratch rates.:

Also possible that it could be a whole new organization at this point

Lore-wise it could be a totally unrelated organisation, but in NGS to date that organisation has still been fully-capitalised.

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Missed opportunity then lol. PSO2 base has a trivia bit where it asks something and mentions the ARKZ. Could have been used to make one where the choices are ARKZ, ARKS, and Arks.

@AngryRhombus563 I know, but that won't makes things better for them. It's just a clever "workaround" of saying "we'll clean it up a little after 6th or 7th scratch... maybe". I'm not gonna tolerate it... most of the current content is locked behind paywal (including this clever move with SG), amount of free content is laughable. If they want me to quit so badlly - ok, I'll do it.