Where the content sega?

@Blade-Syphon Fr me I miss how the Parry use to work. Really wasn't a fan of that change with it's gauge so I'm excited to see how that plays out. I think once ngs hits its stride it's gonna do very well. (I'm still hoping for defense eqs in the main hub area, that'd be sick imo)

@Blade-Syphon Steam is used so we can get an idea of trends. We know steam is the largest, period, this is not up for debate and if you try I am wasting my time with someone who will not talk about the facts in good faith.

We can get a very good idea of the max capacity of all 4 ships based on knowledge we already have. We see block population percentages which alone could let us get a good guess as to how many are active in total. Using this information we can get a good idea of how many people are on the other platforms (combined) based how many Steam says is on at a given time. Easily within a few hundred of actual, unless you think there are thousands of steam users just sitting with the client open and not logged in.

Anyway, while a few people are saying the game is dying. The bulk of the arguments here have been stating that Steam can be used to get a good estimate of the trends across platforms because that's literally what must be done. Extrapolation is very scientific and literally the only logical way to go about it given many of the stats are not openly public. You don't discount possibilities of irregularities, but none of the metrics we have indicate any exist that would go against the general trend shown by Steam (talking about block populations here).

The game is on a downward trend, by pointing at the fact that we don't have other storefront's exact numbers knowing full well they are hidden is being disingenuous and just burring your head in the sand about what the facts are very obviously leaning towards. Can the game recover? Most definitely, and I really hope it does! But with the current drawn out road map, I'm not sure we will ever rise to anymore more than a niche game with a few thousand players like we had in base.

@Blade-Syphon said in Where the content sega?:

That's not scientific

Uh... sorry to break it to you, but science is about trying to find the answer without the evidence being readily available. You are saying that it isn't scientific to use what information is available to you to reinforce your theory? Eek.

nor factual

As I said, of course it isn't factual because it is an argument. You can't argue facts. Using what information is available to you for your argument is kinda what you do when making an argument... but I am gonna assume this is going over your head since you think science only regurgitates already available facts. (big ouch)

The point I was making is that you can't make any educated guess on the game's population or activity if you're only going to use one source as a sample.

actually that is what makes it an educated guess and not an observation. If all the information was available, it would be a fact and not an educated guess.

But yeah we should move on, cause the concept of arguments versus facts is too difficult for today's generation.

Let's talk about how out of the miniscule amount of content that we do have, half of it is recycled from PSO2 vanilla and the other half was ripped straight from Final Fantasy X.

oh yeah, forgot to harp on your incorrect statement of what being biased is.

being biased towards a source would mean that there are other sources available and you intentionally ignore them because they do not support your theory/claim.

You admitted there are no other observable sources, so you kinda defeat your own statement there.

just wanted to fyi that one

Can you people get back on topic? No one cares anymore

At this point, just shut the thread.

OP is banned and 1st post is deleted.

@Blade-Syphon said in Where the content sega?:

The literal point I was making is that claiming a game is dying when you only have one platform's player number is silly. We factually do not know what Epic, Microsoft, or Xbox's playercount is. For all we know, it could be just as large as Steam's is

Unless NGS blocks are way larger than the 200 they seem to be, that isn't really possible. If they were, there'd have been ~240,000 players across ~440 blocks (including OG PSO2) at NGS launch, which would have needed like 550 players per block.

Given that Steam's peak number was ~70% what appeared to be the NGS launch capacity, we can fairly reasonably conclude that Steam had the majority of all NGS players at NGS launch with the other three splitting the remaining 30% (I'd expect something like 20-25% Xbox and 5-10% split between Microsoft Store and Epic Games Store but acknowledge that'd be an emotive guess on my part).

And yeah that balance may have shifted quite a lot now, but really how many full blocks are there on Ships 1, 2 and 4 right now? Supposing each NGS block is 200 players and each PSO2 block is 100, Ship 3 has just over 4,000 players connected at a time when Steam is reporting ~10,400. In the other ecosystems combined to all be "just as large as Steam", there'd need to be 41,600 players overall (just under half NGS launch capacity), i.e. Ships 1 and 2 in particular would need to have more than half of their blocks full.

I have no visibility of the other ships, but you guys tell me: Is that the case?


@John-Paul-RAGE said in Where the content sega?:

Dying is always an exaggerated word, but it is in a huge decline and likely will be down to the normal PSO2 population by the time the next major content update comes out

Agreed here. NGS was never going to keep its launch spike. No game ever does that. But we're in an age where games iterate and refresh much more quickly than this. PSO2 took 8 years to complete 6 episodes. By contrast the likes of Fortnite has 16 seasons in less than 4 years, Fall Guys is talking about going into season 5 before its first birthday and so on. And yes those are different genres, but they're still live-service games.

It seems pretty obvious Sega are (or at least were) planning to be satisfied with being players' "B-side" game, a game they stay on top of without it being their primary game. Perhaps that's how it always worked for PSO2. The approach doesn't seem to be popular even in Japan for NGS anymore though, which might be an indicator that players only stuck around for the tail end of Episode 6 in the hope that New Genesis and an open-world format would bring a more rapid iteration pace than JP experienced - particularly with the later episodes as it was almost 5½ years between the start of PSO2 Episode 4 and New Genesis.

That time period included months of one Ridroid Quest, over half a year of one Buster Quest and over a year of one (if more self-varied) Divide Quest. In hindsight I can't blame them for wanting a bit more pace to the arrival of new content, and that is the topic.

@Miraglyth Here ya go. Didn't bother taking a screenie of the ones in-between or after, they are even less than a quarter full.

EDIT: Ship 2, forgot to include in original post.

ship 2 blocks cont.PNG

Ship 2 blocks.PNG

All I know is that every single person I know, even the ones that started with me all the way back during the closed beta, has quit on Xbox. Anyone irl or from the game

Also, the game’s Xbox “club” page is regularly around like 5% of what it used to be before NGS. At the best/peaks it’s maybe at 10% of what it was pre NGS. Right now there’s 9 people on, for a comparison RDR2 is at 209

Xbox and steam were by far the most popular, anyone arguing otherwise is willfully full of it. There’s literally always been people complaining about the Microsoft store, to the point where people joke about still not trusting it even though it was “largely fixed” last autumn. In game after steam came out I regularly saw people still bashing the Microsoft version up until around the Christmas event

I’ve literally seen 1 person mention playing on epic and that was on Reddit.

It doesn’t have to mean that there’s nobody playing the game, but multiple things all point there. And having people just question things because they can’t be proven, that makes sense only given the circumstances.

A good comparison to that argument being made against the declining playerbase is the hollow earth people. They’re technically right in saying that we physically cannot prove that the earth past a certain point isn’t hollow, we can’t dig that deep with current tech. It’s the same argument being made where a lot of you all refute lots of directly contributing factors because it ‘just can’t be proven’

@John-Paul-RAGE said in Where the content sega?:

@Miraglyth Here ya go. Didn't bother taking a screenie of the ones in-between or after, they are even less than a quarter full.

Thanks!

Supposing 200 per block there's about 2,650 players there. Supposing the other 46 blocks averaged about 40 players each (1,840) that's about 4,500 players on NGS blocks. A comparable ratio with Ship 3 (about 25% more) for PSO2 blocks would add about 500 more for around 5,000 total.

Supposing the old pre-NGS generalisations about Ships 1 and 4 (i.e. 2 > 1 >>> 3 >>> 4) are true, a very quick guess could be ~4,800 for Ship 1 and ~3,500 for Ship 4 which would be 17,300 total. Fortunately Steam's numbers haven't really changed between our posts - 10,450 now - which means Steam is about 60% of that estimate. Still a majority, albeit reduced, but with less concrete estimates (perhaps I've been too generous about estimating the other 46 blocks of Ship 2, or of Ships 1 and 4).

Certainly nowhere close to 25%. For that to be the case our expectation of block sizes would still have to be way out.

I play on Xbox......so does my crew!

I’ve been around since the Xbox closed beta period. :3

Yeah I know we got 8 years worth of content in a 1 year span, but I heard from many players then that there was still heavy content droughts even with a legacy of content. So if NGS expects to hold a playerbase with less than that, We’re in for a bumpy, slow ass ride... o_o

In NGS’ current state, I can’t recommend it to anyone. 😞

Don't know why people keep using the 8 years worth of content in 1 year line, because that isn't the issue.

The issue is that NGS has no meat, while having time-gating, riddled with bugs, no rewarding repeatable content, heavy monetisation, all coupled with a slow roadmap. You don't "finish" NGS and feel like you've played a game while waiting for the next content, you feel like you've played a tech demo.

JP PSO2 launch was much better than this for a few reasons:

  • You had 4 distinct areas, rather than 1 area with small variations.
  • You had repeatable content through the daily and weekly client orders from various NPCs, giving you different ways to play instead of just looping areas (before VH, these were very rewarding).
  • No extremely heavy monetisation; there was no such thing as untradeable paid items early on (bonus scratch stuff only happened in Episode 3 or 4, and should have never been added the way they did), and free players had access to the market through FUN Scratch as well. Right now, NGS comes off very poorly to many new players as there's no content, but they are still asking for a lot of money for certain things and constantly advertising scratches.
  • Items were farmed in a variety of areas, and many were distinct rather than just being "sets". Areas also had unique enemies, rather than every area having the same set of enemies causing no variey in combat.
  • The roadmap in PSO2 2012 was very clearly laid out, and very quick. 3 areas were released in the space of 3-4 months, along with 3 more classes, subclasses, an extra difficulty, 2 extra Time Attack Quests, a lot of client orders along the way, countless more rares, augments, lots more story, level cap increase and so on. NGS uses mostly recycled content (every ALTER for example is a previous PSO enemy if you watch their movesets!), yet the roadmap is far, far slower than PSO2 ever was.
  • Absolutely no time-gating. At the beginning on PSO2, there were no dailies, no weeklies, no mandatory Urgents (the earliest "mandatory Urgent" would be Elder, 6 months later), you could just get on and play to make progress instead of waiting for resets. In NGS, you're always waiting for the next daily or weekly reset to start making significant progress again, or for the next random* thunderstorm (* thunderstorms are actually on a schedule each week at the moment, but it's still a very bad system).
  • PSO2 wasn't a buggy filled mess. It's never had no bugs, but NGS is a complete other story.
  • Some more stuff, probably.

Everyone focuses on how much "physical content" JP PSO2 launch has, but the amount of content is much less important than the replayability and quality of said content. Early PSO2 content was repeatable for constant rewards (you could play maps and NPC stuff for quite a lot of meseta! F2P players rejoice!), you weren't forced to do anything timegated, you could use Client Orders to progress and play your way (I sure wasn't looping to level!), and it was just a much better experience all around.

@ARKHAM-CANNON said in Where the content sega?:

The only thing I'm doing right now is getting my three characters to 20 because I don't like switching classes. Otherwise we all know there's nothing to do besides gigantix.

Sega seems to be trying to do exactly what they did with old pso2, that seems more than likely with Japanese devs being pretty hard-headed until the sky falls.

They are watching the numbers for sure and will adjust when too many players are inactive. But somehow some way they have to get the message that their content calendar is just too light.

The other hand I do appreciate not having to play this everyday, because Lord have mercy there's a ton of other amazing games that need to be played and finished.

End of the day, yeah there's no content here and as much as I love running around in sweet 60 frames per section action, we still actually need something to do besides going to salon.

Also upgrading your weapons and items is so bloody expensive it's just stupid. And these are all four star items like come on... I'm sticking with my PSO 215 star weapons for now because this is just not worth it especially if you don't have a shop.

You have to farm a lot! I mean a lot.......look at this you tuber.

You did read I play on Xbox right and my crew?

While I agree with lack of content and many of the points you made, I also have a different take on some of them.

@Matt said in Where the content sega?:

  • You had 4 distinct areas, rather than 1 area with small variations.

Think this is because of the "open field" approach of NGS, sure they could have given us desert and tundra at start of NGS, but it is what it is.

  • You had repeatable content through the daily and weekly client orders from various NPCs, giving you different ways to play instead of just looping areas (before VH, these were very rewarding).

Daily/Weekly client orders... is basically the daily and weekly missions. I don't remember them being much more rewarding than what it is now in PSO2, there was just more of them targeting specific mobs rather than kill 60~70 mobs in 1 area. But ability to do them on multiple characters were nice. Dailies on NGS is meh, and it could have been per character but the weekly rewards are too high, shouldn't be throwing this much meseta at players.

  • No extremely heavy monetisation; there was no such thing as untradeable paid items early on (bonus scratch stuff only happened in Episode 3 or 4, and should have never been added the way they did), and free players had access to the market through FUN Scratch as well. Right now, NGS comes off very poorly to many new players as there's no content, but they are still asking for a lot of money for certain things and constantly advertising scratches.

Definitely agree with this, and the JP reaction/comments on NGS headline is also noting that SEGA is focusing a bit too heavy on monetization. Bonus scratch wasn't this bad before.... especially on JP. It was only recently that they started to lock actual items behind bonus scratches. I may have remembered it wrong, but in the beginning most of the bonuses were just things like salon pass and color change pass and other consumables.

  • Items were farmed in a variety of areas, and many were distinct rather than just being "sets". Areas also had unique enemies, rather than every area having the same set of enemies causing no variey in combat.

I don't really remember items being that distinct... it's all just low rarity junk that you just NPC from all areas. But yes NGS mobs is kind of boring with only a few mobs unique to certain zones, lizards/dolls are basically same everywhere.

  • The roadmap in PSO2 2012 was very clearly laid out, and very quick. 3 areas were released in the space of 3-4 months, along with 3 more classes, subclasses, an extra difficulty, 2 extra Time Attack Quests, a lot of client orders along the way, countless more rares, augments, lots more story, level cap increase and so on. NGS uses mostly recycled content (every ALTER for example is a previous PSO enemy if you watch their movesets!), yet the roadmap is far, far slower than PSO2 ever was.

Story in PSO2 were just mostly low budget talking cutscenes and I seriously don't remember them coming out that fast either - they threw 1 matterboard at you at a time and sometimes months apart, and it is only just a few cutscenes on specific spots of it. You spent vast majority of the time working on the drop you need for that ONE spot on the matterboard at a time - though later on in like EP3 they let you do all adjacent spots at the same time? As for classes and subclass, PSO2 started with only 3 - NGS started with 6 and gave subclass at very start - it took until EP2 to get braver and EP3 to get bouncer and that's years later. First level cap increase was +10 levels and holy crap the exp curve sucked back then and there were really no EXP quests so it took like a whole day of grinding to get a single level.

  • Absolutely no time-gating. At the beginning on PSO2, there were no dailies, no weeklies, no mandatory Urgents (the earliest "mandatory Urgent" would be Elder, 6 months later), you could just get on and play to make progress instead of waiting for resets. In NGS, you're always waiting for the next daily or weekly reset to start making significant progress again, or for the next random* thunderstorm (* thunderstorms are actually on a schedule each week at the moment, but it's still a very bad system).

The client orders are basically the dailies/weeklies we have now, but yes there were alot more on PSO2 and can do multiple times on multiple characters to keep you entertained. But why are urgents mandatory - for capsules? Early PSO2 urgents were just sending you to different planets and kill mobs hoping for PSE bursts so you can actually level - no real bosses. I much rather do what NGS has now - the 8 man combat zones where you can go anytime. But yes, most people that I know and reactions on NGS headline is against the Gigantix system, feels like the buster quest fiasco all over again

  • PSO2 wasn't a buggy filled mess. It's never had no bugs, but NGS is a complete other story.

Agreed, it been littered with bugs ever since the graphic update before NGS even came out. While I appreciate them letting us carry over cosmetics from PSO2, they really didn't test things well and everything felt rushed for the Spring 2021 deadline.