So ... what's going on with the Oracle Renew Collection for Global players?

@reivaxe55 said in So ... what's going on with the Oracle Renew Collection for Global players?:

@Miraglyth What now? I'm not trying to convince any "whales" to change their habits at all, I was directing that at mostly you

Rewinding a moment:

@reivaxe55 said in So ... what's going on with the Oracle Renew Collection for Global players?:

@Miraglyth the best advice I'd have for anyone to have a healthy relationship with the system when it comes to AC scratches or RNG loot boxes in general is to never buy into them in hopes of getting 1 particular thing.

How is "the best advice [snip] for anyone" directed at mostly me? 🤔


@reivaxe55 said in So ... what's going on with the Oracle Renew Collection for Global players?:

I very much doubt people are rubbing their hands, going "Oooohh boy, I have a 0.6% chance! That's good, I don't know what I'd do if this 1 item had a 0.3% or 0.2% chance! Lets gooooo roll em diiiiice!"

I don't want to diverge from the topic too much but at this point it's necessary for me to talk about sets and compound probability.

0.6666% is 2 in 300 and we've seen it in a couple of recent AC sets like Sakura Splendor, the last remaining temporary AC scratch. Crucially it's the rate of many items that form sets with other items:

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In short every scratch has a 296 in 300 chance to get neither of those, which works out to a ~66.85% chance to get neither in the 30 scratches it takes to get the first choice ticket. If those two items are all you want, you have a ~33.15% chance to get at least one, and either you get the other as well or you can spend the choice ticket on it.

If you suddenly throw in another 600 items that were meant to be other scratches, that 2 in 300 becomes 2 in 900 (0.2222%), every scratch has an 896 in 900 chance to get neither of them, yadda yadda, in 30 scratches you suddenly only have a ~12.51% chance to get at least one. Even in 60 scratches there's only a 23.45% chance.

This gets worse the more interference there is, and the more from the original set you wanted. And it gets worse for everyone, whales or no. All of whom can decide with the knowledge that the rates were supposed to be better than Global got with a horrid combination (and just the fact that Global got the short straw yet again) to simply not scratch at all, reducing the supply of unwanted pulls on the market and consequently the variety you want in the first place.

I'm in agreement with Patchouli-Chan here. You can talk about free scratches all you like, but those are SG scratches not the AC ones you want to bloat into being undesirable by smashing Oracle Renew into them. Bloating scratches isn't looking out for anyone. It hurts all players and surely generates the server less money than simply running them at the originally designed size one at a time, which Global will very likely have opportunity to do when JP do a collaboration that can't be licensed globally.

By the way, if you did smash Oracle Renew into Soldier Line to make it not worth doing two AC sets in one move, and repeated that trick four more times to ruin ten AC scratch sets, then JP did an AC scratch collaboration that Global couldn't license, what would you use to fill the gap? Since we'd then have nothing to fill it with. Should Global scratchers just sit on their thumbs for a couple weeks? That'd jack up the prices of whatever was in the scratch before the gap. Awesome.

@Miraglyth You're asking how was that directed mostly at you?

Because you said this. "If you want one specific item, it's better to have a 0.6666% chance of getting it from a prize pool of 176 items than a 0.2222% chance of getting it from a congested prize pool of 528 items."

That was your example and I could only assume that's YOUR way of thinking. I didn't want to make it seem like I'm personally attacking you, but that logic makes no sense. No rational person looks at a 0.6% chance of getting something as any better than a 0.2% chance, both are so small that you CAN'T feel like those are in any way "good odds". If all you want is 1 thing then it's smarter to either profit off of your limited attempts to get it, so you can buy it off someone else or just get the guaranteed ticket after x number of rolls if you think it's worth more than anything you can get from those attempts. ( Not even going to go into how every scratch would still be a 0.6% chance no matter what the scratch before it was. Your odds of getting a single 0.6% item doesn't change just because you attempted to get it 20+ times)

Whales come in a lot of shapes and sizes, but this game flat out lets you BUY things from other people and translate your AC Scratches into in game profit. So it's not full on predictory practices, you don't have to personally scratch that 0.6% item to get it ... so that number means far less than you seem to think to the arvg player.

And ... I never said anything looks out for anyone lmao!

AC Scratches are RNG loot boxes that prey on gambling impulses and FoMo ... they are also this game's primary form of profit. It's a gacha system. Sega gave us Fun scratches and with NGS Sega gives F2P players SG for SG scratches and 1 free SG scratch a day ... why? Maybe cause it trains people to engage in that gambling impulse, making it more likely they will engage in the AC gacha at some point. Mission passes are to keep people playing the game by offering them rewards. These types of things "help" F2P players, but are really just means for Sega to keep people playing and/ or increase the chances they will spend money. If no one buys AC scratches, the game gets no money and goes bye-bye cause that the monetization model they went for.

Like, I whined about the Rappy Packy, but I know why they did it. That Rappy Pack is ... trash for anyone not hard set on power leveling through gear upgrades. It's not worth $50, but just by adding in 2 cute animations they have effectively made many people think "Maaaaybe it's not so bad?". This way they get to keep an actually appealing outfit/ set for AC cause the more sets you have in them the more likely someone is to maybe drop money on them.

So yes, from Sega's profits PoV this would be a ripe time to juice up ACs for global. Hype around the game is real, everyone on global starting NGS will only have default NGS options if they want to use NGS bods/ faces, and they have a ton of NGS assets that are done and released which won't make their production schedule tighter. For them, it would be a good move. For paying players a big scratch would offer far more than a small and for F2P players they can buy outfits off the AH.

@reivaxe55 said in So ... what's going on with the Oracle Renew Collection for Global players?:

@Miraglyth You're asking how was that directed mostly at you?

No. I'm saying your first reply to me literally said "the best advice [snip] for anyone" and second claimed to not be trying to convince whales. Whales are part of "anyone", and unsolicited advice is generally an attempt to convince. That's all I'm saying in regards to that.


@reivaxe55 said in So ... what's going on with the Oracle Renew Collection for Global players?:

No rational person looks at a 0.6% chance of getting something as any better than a 0.2% chance, both are so small that you CAN'T feel like those are in any way "good odds".

Nor do you need to. PSO2 scratches aren't structured to expect players to make one pull in them. They have options to scratch in sets of twelve, previously sold tickets in sets of twelve, and provide bonuses for cumulative scratches within each set with the most important ones for traditional AC scratches being at 30, 60 and 120. That's why compound probability as explained in my previous post does matter, and why interference sucks for both players and the game's income.

Let me defer to extremes here: If a scratch set had a very nice item you'd absolutely buy if it was directly sold for $200 and it was literally the only item in the set so the chance of getting it was 100% for $2, would you scratch for it? Now if there were literally 1 billion other items that you didn't want so the chance was 0.0000001%, would you still scratch for it? The answers I'm going for are "Yes" and "No" respectively and that alone should be enough to prove that there is always a point at which scratches are worth it.

That point is different for different people, but it is undeniable that if you reduce the odds of everything in two sets by smushing them together, it will take the value proposition beyond that point for some players. Thereby causing harm to both the supply of items in both sets and the game's income as I previously described.

if they absolutely must blast through the catch-up of the Oracle Renew scratches ASAP and leave Global players with no scratches at all whenever JP does collaborations Global can't license (a question you didn't answer, I notice), it'd be infinitely better for them to just run them concurrent to the new scratches instead of bloating them. Global already suffered enough with bloated combination scratches during OG PSO2's hideous SG scratches. I never want to see that happen again.

@reivaxe55 Welp I was wrong. That's literally the entire scratch. They have it up on the new website that's coming out.

@Zeara said in So ... what's going on with the Oracle Renew Collection for Global players?:

@reivaxe55 Welp I was wrong. That's literally the entire scratch. They have it up on the new website that's coming out.

That website looks wildly incomplete - many of the images don't even load - and it speaks of featured and recommended items. The scratch website listings of late have often been very incomplete, so I wouldn't take this as gospel.

Edit: There's a more complete listing on the JP Players site.

@Miraglyth its the exact same list Global's site has.

@Miraglyth said in So ... what's going on with the Oracle Renew Collection for Global players?:

That website looks wildly incomplete - many of the images don't even load [snip] There's a more complete listing on the JP Players site.

@Zeara said in So ... what's going on with the Oracle Renew Collection for Global players?:

@Miraglyth its the exact same list Global's site has.

Oh look, they updated it. Instead of like 10 items it now has 58. Thanks for catching that.

Maybe they could make the outfits exchangeable for Star Gems or ARKS Cash instead of through Scratch?

c'mon sega